Football trading – ‘Lay the draw’ – Betfair trading strategy

Football trading – ‘Lay the draw’ – Betfair trading strategy
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please like and comment on the video
below that will allow me to produce better quality videos and more of them
in the future so I thought we would use the first Premiership match of this
season to have a look at the soccer profiling tool that we have in betangel
court soccer mystic and use that to have a look how lay the draw may or may not
pan out on this particular mattress evening because the reason that soccer
mystic was developed was to allow you to have a deeper dig in a football match
before the match has started but you can use that in a number of different ways
to either validate a strategy or to understand what risk you’re taking or
how the match could pan out and it’s an it’s worth doing so let’s have a look at
it the football specific tool is up here and on the right and if we click on that
it will bring up what you see here now in the top right hand corner what we do
is we have a model that sits underneath this particular tool but it tends to
look a market data to construct it so if you the little signal strength that we
have up here tells you how flush the markets are how liquid they are and it
will look at the market to confirm what it’s looking at and derive some
information from that so if the number of bars up here are low then you
probably shouldn’t be using it at all but if the if the bars are around this
level then that’s great it’s it’s got sufficient information to have a look at
the match so what are we looking at on the screen here well this graph down
here is telling you how the odds will move based upon the home team their way
and the draw so if for example we just look at the draw specifically we’re
actually looking at a probability chart so the draw is starting at around 20 or
2% and it’s getting more and more certain as the match progresses you may
not be familiar with looking at probability so if you want to switch
that off you’ll see that it looks at odds so it gives you the odds at which
it starts at and you can see them gradually going down to 101 so what this
is saying is that over the course of this match
if there are no goals scored then eventually the draw will end up at 101
which is quite logical really but what you’re
interested in is how will a goal affect the odds as the match progresses you
should note as well as I move the crosshairs around can you see its
mapping the odds it’s just a quick way of getting a visual references to where
the odds are and what the odds are telling you at that particular point in
time because obviously you can’t read out from the graph you’re going to have
to move the mouse pointed at a particular area of a graph and then you
can look at the odds displayed underneath so let’s stick a goal in
let’s say it’s a drab nil-nil first half and then the first goal comes on 55
minutes how will that affect the odds let’s have a look and what’s going to
happen on the draw you can click refresh here or it will
auto refresh your ease if I click refresh you can see that what happens
here is the chance of the drawer gets more and more certain more and more
certain more and more certain and it bottoms at about 55 minutes it’ll be
rounded sort of about two and a half or so on and then Arsenal score and then
the odds will go flying out so if you want to calculate roughly what your
position would be what your potential trade value would be click down here
click up here and then it will give you the difference in the the bottom bit of
the bar here so in a while I was struggling to say that and so what
happens this actually you know Lester hold out for ages and then they score
first in the 55th minute click on refresh again can you actually see what
happens here so the odds will come down come down come down and then the clump
out again and then the chance of the draw into sort of skirts off into the
distance here so if you actually start playing around with this this will give
you an idea of how the odds will change as the match progresses now one of the
things you can see is can you see how flattened crunched up it is at the
bottom that’s because we set the odds limits at 1,000 so let’s put that down
to a smaller level let’s put it down to 20 or something and then we’ll get a
better view on what’s going on here so let us go back to that scenario where
the goal was scored after 55 minutes you can see here you’ve got a slightly
easier representation of that and this would be if Lester score the away goal
so originally we started over here at these odds Lester score the
goal first and can you see the problem that you’ve got if you follow this
crosshair across for once a better name can you see if I position that about
where that goal is scored can you see that there’s a gap to where the starting
odds were so you would have lost money on that occasion now if I switch their
way go off and click on refresh let’s do the same thing again by using the
crosshair to look at the start odds and where that goal goes in and what happens
to the price on that you can see anything above the crosshair
indicates that you’ll be in profit anything below indicates that you’ll be
a loss Allah because actually find where that key point is within the market so
can you see that the earlier the goal arrives to the more chance you’ve got a
being in profit the bigger the amount of profit that you’ll make on that
particular match the later it arrives if that goal doesn’t arrive until 75
minutes can you see that you know the amount of potential profit that you’ve
got there is relatively small and if we do the away goal and we do that pretty
late you can see that while you’re pretty shagged there because if that
goal arrives and it’s an away goal then you can see that we’re actually below
the starting value and therefore you would have to trade out for a loss let’s
see what happens if we move that forward to 25 minutes in other words we give us
not a chance to come back into the match here so if we go here then you can
actually see that when the goal is inked is scored at that particular point you
are well off at that particular moment within the match the draw would actually
contract in price but can you see the way that the draw curves and then around
halftime in just after halftime it’s at its low point so this is with less than
one alarm and then you can start to see that the draw begins to regain its value
so if Leicester scored first and then held on for a long period of time and
Arsenal couldn’t get back into the match the draw all actually cross back over a
bit later in the match but for a long period of time you will be out of the
money significantly so if we click here and then we click here to when that
point is in the match that across this bag you
can see you’re going to have to hold your position for 54 minutes before the
chance of getting your money back it becomes an opportunity but what I’m
doing here are some sort of talking around all the different scenarios this
is why we created this tool is for you to have a play rather than you guessing
or whatever you can point at any particular match and just have a play
and look at all of the different scenarios give yourself an idea so
you’re sort of saying well I’m going to lay the draw and then I’m going to do
this if that happens and this if that happens and if that happens I’m going to
wait until this length of time and so on and so forth so the tool was originally
created because we wanted to play around and have a go all of these different
scenarios and see what the impact would be and eventually that idea that concept
made it into the product and I suggest if you haven’t looked at it have a look
at it and have a play around with it one of the difficulties that you will always
have with modeling is that you can’t absolutely guarantee that it will be
accurate because anything could happen but the idea is it just gives you a
basis on which to play around and experiment and come up with strategies
without having to risk any money in the market and spending hours looking at
data or testing stuff it just gives you an idea of what sort of strategies could
or could not work given certain scenarios and given certain types of
matches you

6 thoughts on “Football trading – ‘Lay the draw’ – Betfair trading strategy

  1. Thanks Peter, did have an eye to do something on this match but sat down a few minutes in and saw the scoreline after 5mins at which point really wasn't sure what to do. Thankfully, the season is just beginning.

  2. Peter I don't get you ,everything that you showed failed massively , how can you name the video "quick tips" . I've seen only loosing tips … :)) . Why don't you put some trades so people can see your brilliant brain doing a trade. I am sure I'll buy bet angel if I see some stimulating videos . Cheers

  3. Hi Peter, love your videos, such great perspective and attitude around trading, thank you.

    This video focuses on first goal scenarios and I'm curious to know if/when you assess a match to LTD are you always aiming to trade out for a smaller profit or loss after the first goal regardless of whether it is scored by H or A or would you stay in the market? A lot of reviews of LTD I've read suggest staying the market to maximise profit but it feels much more like standard betting me. Fully appreciate this may be something you assess on a per match basis but keen to understand your discipline.

    Thanks again!

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