Daily Fantasy Football Strategy and Introduction (DFS)

Daily Fantasy Football Strategy and Introduction (DFS)

What’s going on fantasy football fans.
I’m your host, Huseyin “The Brain” and you’re watching The Couch. I’d like to welcome you all to a special video, it’s our first fantasy football DFS video ever,
and if you only play season-long leagues, the traditional type, you wanna watch
this video, I’m gonna have a lot of tips and strategies that can be used for
traditional season-long leagues as well. If you’re new to daily leagues and
weekly leagues, this video is for you. If you’ve been playing DFS for a while,
they’re still going to be a lot of information that you probably didn’t know already,
that’s going to help you win. In this video I’m gonna start off by explaining
what DFS is. Then we’ll go over the differences between traditional
season-long leagues and DFS. Then I’m gonna let you guys see the process of
how I pick my DFS lineups, what I do from the very beginning. Then we’ll talk about
the different strategies used for a cash game versus a tournament. And make sure
to watch the entire video because at the end I’ll reveal some more tips that’s going to help you maximize your winnings. Let’s start off by talking about what DFS is. What it is daily fantasy sports? This new wave of
playing fantasy is very exciting because you’re not just locked into the same
lineup the whole season. You can have a new lineup every day. And when you win, you can
have real cash deposited in your account boom right away, right after the games
are over. The goal is basically the same as traditional fantasy football leagues,
and that is to create a roster that’s going to score you the most fantasy
points. In daily leagues, you have to make sure you fulfill the position requirements, that’s
one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end, one defense
and one kicker. You also have to stay under the salary cap and that’s the
biggest difference between traditional and daily leagues. You have $60,000 to spend, and each player has a price attached to their name. So if you select
them, that’s deducted from your salary and you have to stay under the salary cap or
you won’t have a lineup. You can start off by playing for free and if you want to
play for cash, there’s leagues out there where the buy-in is as low as $1. Let’s
talk about some of the differences in season-long, traditional leagues vs.
DFS. I’m gonna be focusing on drafting strategy here. In season-long
league’s draft at NFL players based off potential; they may blow up the last half
of the season. In DFS, you don’t do that; you focus
just on what’s going on for this game; are they going to have a successful game
this week or not. Injury risk is a huge factor in season-long leagues but not so much in DFS. Now, I’m not talking about a player
that’s already injured; if they’re going into a game injured then that’s different than you pobably don’t want to draft that player in DFS, but i f a player is injury prone
and is 100% healthy and slated to have a good game; you don’t
really worry about that in DFS. Now, in season-long leagues, players that have a
huge history of injuries like McFadden or Arian Foster, you may want to avoid or
draft them later. In DFS, that doesn’t really apply its not a big factor. In
season-long league’s a lot of experts recommend that you mix between low risk
players and high risk players. You may have one or two boom-or-bust players, but
you need some safe players, maybe some elite workhorse running backs that’s
gonna help balance for team. In DFS the strategy is a little different, you
will likely have a mix as well, but you usually want to lean towards a low risk roster
or a high risk roster. And I’ll explain that in a little bit why that is. Right now I want
to focus on the beginning steps; what I do once the rosters are open, it’s ready for
another week of DFS lineups, these are the first things I do. The very first
thing I do is look at the Vegas lines and analyze the game scripts. For the
games that have the highest scoring points, I may like those quarterbacks more in
those games. The winning team because they’re going
to have the lead likely in that game, they’re gonna give the ball to the
running back, whether it’s carries or pass attempts/catches. So, I may like the
running back of that winning team in those games. Now, I may look at some of those
low-scoring games that week, and that could result in a great
defense — a sleeper defense that’s not priced too high. So, I might factor that
into my roster selection. The next thing I look at is to exploit some of these
prices. Sometimes the prices take a little while to catch up. There may be
some breaking news, you know, like let’s say the wide receiver one on a team and
the wide receiver two are injured, that wide receiver four on that team is gonna
be priced at minimum salary usually, especially if it happens closer to Sunday. So, I look at all those
exploits; I note those players that are extremely cheap, players that you know
are gonna probably produce that are extremely cheap make for great picks. Then
I note the players that I’m going to avoid. In 2014, we saw Calvin Johnson and Jimmy
Graham be used as decoys because they had lingering injuries. Now, if I think a
player may be used as a decoy or if they have a significant injury that may allow
them to have a terrible game and they have a high price tag, I’m definitely
going to avoid those players. So I note them: hey, I’m definitely avoiding these
players, don’t even think about putting them in my roster. Now one of the factors
I look at is weather. Not a huge factor and some of it is myth. I go to NFLWeather.com, I look at what some of the situations are. Now rain, and snow, and a lot of other things that
people think affect the game, don’t affect the game as much. And there’s of
course exceptions. We saw that snow storm in 2013, remember Megatron had a huge
chunk snow in his helmet. I’m sure a lot of you remember that game. Now if there’s some kind
of weird snowstorm like that, yeah, you probably don’t want to start players in
that game, especially a QB or receiver, but a lot of times, weather doesn’t matter.
Remember Tom Brady, it was snowing, he threw for five touchdowns in one qurter, it was
insane, against the Tennessee Titans a few years back. Now when weather
does matter a lot, this is the most impact weather does have is when there’s
high winds. Teams throw less pass attempts and less yards per pass attempt when
there’s a lot of wind. Winds above 10 miles an hour, you start to see good decrease in pass
attempts and how long the ball is thrown per pass. Now winds above 16 MPH
is really bad, so if I see winds above 16 or 20 miles per hour, I’m probably going
to avoid that quarterback or any of those two quarterbacks in
that game period. And remember all these tips on giving you are just little tips to
help you have that little competitive edge against your opponent. The main goal
is always the same, you want to make a roster that’s going to give you the most
fantasy points. I’m just giving you these other small strategies for you to use to
help you create that roster. You might have a good roster and then with all
these strategies I give you, you may make one or two changes, that’ll help give you
that edge, especially throughout the season, this all adds up. You might have a bad week for one week, but then five to six weeks later because
of these strategies you implemented you’ll have that edge, and you’ll win.
Let’s talk about cash versus tournaments. Now what a cash game is, is either a 50-50 league: that’s, let’s say a league of 100 participants
and fifty of them win and fifty of them loose. Or it could be a
head-to-head matchup. One guy versus one guy. So you basically have a
50-50 chance to win–those are cash games tournament games are also called GPP,
that’s guaranteed prize pool. In these type of tournaments, typically
around the top ten percent of the participants or top twenty percent of
the participants, win a large chunk of cash and the buy-in for these leagues
are typically pretty low. So your chances are less likely to win tournaments/GPPs,
but the prize is pretty rewarding. When you participate in cash games, what you
want to do is pick a low-risk team, you don’t want to pick a lot of boom-or-bust
players. The two positions that are the most consistent and what you want to
usually allocate your money towards are quarterbacks and running backs. I’m not
telling you to do this every single week, every situation. It’s just one factor to
know, that a lot of people that win cash games, they do allocate their money more
for quarterbacks and running backs. Tournaments/GPPs, they’re the complete
opposite, you want to allocate more of your money on wide receivers. Wide
receivers are boom or bust just naturally with that position. One week they’ll
get you zero touchdowns and the next week, three touchdowns. Another strategy for GPPs
is to stack a quarterback with their wide receiver. If that wide receiver
scores three touchdowns that game, that quarterback is going to have a good game.
So, that’s a really good strategy. And if that team does terrible, then you know
you’re out of it. But stacking is better for tournament games. You can
do it in in cash games just know that there’s a
lot more risk with that. So, for cash games what you want to do is maximize your
floor. Your basically building a lineup not to lose. For tournament games, what
you want to do is maximize your ceiling, you want to go for the gusto here. Go for
the most riskiest picks, stack players, go all out, try to score the most points. Because a
good team won’t win a tournament, only a great team will win the tournament. And
here are some more tips that will help you gain that edge in DFS. OK, for quarterbacks,
we already discussed a lot of this, but you what want to look at the matchup, and
when you look at the matchup, obviously you look at their pass defense, how they do
against quarterbacks. OK everybody knows that. You also want to look at the game
script and see if the other team is a high-scoring team, will they score a
lot of points. Now, if we combine those two your quarterback that you’re about to
pick is going up against a team who scores a lot of points and a
team that has a terrible pass defense that makes for a pretty sweet matchup. And
another basic tip that this one you may already know, is you want to look at a team
if you’re picking a quarterback on that team: do they pass a lot? Do they tend to
pass more than they run? Also, how efficient are they? Some teams pass a lot but aren’t
inefficient, so you want to look at both those two things. Typically if that
quarterbacks on a very efficient pass offense, and they throw the ball a lot,
that price tag is going to reflect and be very high anyway regardless. But you
do want to look at that though. Now let’s get into the juicy stats you want to
analyze. For running backs, everyone knows: I’m gonna look at rushing yards and you
know they look at total yards from the line of scrimmage, receiving and
rushing, they look at touchdowns, receptions, all that. The one stat that correlates the
most to fantasy points, it doesn’t directly give you fantasy points (yards, receptions, catches), is snap count. This is very important. Not a lot of people know
this, so the more snaps, the more times a running back lines up, total snap count
the more fantasy points they get. You also want to look at the percentage, the
amount of times that running back lines up for that team.
So if the team runs 100 plays and the running backs lined up 100 times,
their snap count percentage is 100%. This is one huge factor I use when picking
running backs in DFS. Another stat I look at really closely is goal line carries
and goal-line snaps as well who’s the goal line back. Now this is gonna be
really important when you’re picking up a sleeper running back. Let’s say you pick
a stud running back for your RB1. Your RB2, you may want to go with
someone that’s not well known and there’s a ton injuries, especially
in the running back position, so I look at those things. Who’s the team like to put
in those situations, even if they’re not running the ball, and who they give it to
as a carry in those important situations. Obviously this stat
is gonna mean, hey this is the running back that could get that touchdown. There’s not a whole lot of instances were running backs score 50, 60, 70 yard touchdowns. Those are so
rare. Most touchdown scored by running backs are on the goal line, within 10
yards of the touchdown. We talked about game script before. Now, how about if you’re
thinking about picking a running back for a team that’s going to get blown out.
Those teams need to pass to get back in the game. So they’re going to
pass a lot in the fourth quarter. But you really like that running back let’s say. If
they’re not a pass-catching running back, they don’t have the ability to catch the
ball they likely not even lineup but if they have pass-catching ability and that
running back is pretty much immune to any game script. But of course, just because
Vegas says the game is gonna go one way it doesn’t mean that it’s going to. It
just indicates that it’s likely to go that way. That pass-catching running back,
it’s very important that lowers your risk right there. If a running back can
run well and catch the ball well and they’re lined up a lot; they’re gonna be
lined up no matter what’s the situation, whether that team’s getting
blown out, or they’re the team that has a huge lead. Let’s talk about wide
receivers and tight ends. Just like snap count is two running backs, the amount of
targets and the percentage of targets on that team directed towards that receiver
is the most important stat to look at that doesn’t directly give you fantasy
points, so of course everyone looks at receptions, yards, touchdowns. And
touchdowns are very hard to predict. They’re pretty much unpredictable. The
only thing we can really predict is with touchdowns is how bad that defense
they’re facing: do they give a lot of receiving touchdowns up? And the height of
the receiver you’re picking is shown that taller receivers and taller tight
ends are more likely to score touchdowns. Since we’re talking about targets,
this is one of those stats to look at that’s going to really help you in
season-long leagues as well. You look at all these experts, they always
talk about target. They may not explain to you why they’re talking about
targets. It’s because it’s a very important stat and it really indicates
who’s going to score the most fantasy points. If a player is getting a lot of
targets, that means that hey they may score a lot of fantasy points for you. Another stat you want to look at for wide
receivers and tight ends is targets within the 10 yard line. When the team’s
close to the end zone, who do they like to throw to. For defenses, we already covered
the game script: a low-scoring game makes for finding a good sleeper defense, but
the other stat I look at that’s very important is pressure on the quarterback.
Defenses are very inconsistent in fantasy, but a defense may not do so
well one game, but if they constantly pressure the quarterback, they get a lot
of pressures on the quarterback, that defense is bound to have a big game, so
that’s a really good stat to look at when selecting your defense. That’s why
we see in fantasy defenses with those crazy killer D-Lines that reek havoc;
those defenses tend to do very well in fantasy. And kickers as you probably know
what I’m gonna say they’re the most inconsistent position in fantasy for
season-long and DFS, so don’t spend too much money on a kicker. Typically I spent
what’s left over on a kicker. Talk about salary cap, you also wanna spend a good
chunk of your money. You can’t really put an exact number but if I had to I’d say
try to use at least 99 percent of your salary cap. Don’t go pick a player just cuz
you know I want to spend more of my money you know what I’m talking about is
$60,000 to spend, you don’t have to spend the entire sixty thousand and
don’t feel forced that you have to spend another $100 or $200 so you pick another
player, but at the same time, you don’t want to be up to $60,000 salary, you don’t want to spend $50,000 and then be like he I’m good That’s not going to work out for you. Tournaments or GPPs are pretty exciting,
they’re hard to resist sometimes. I have a good stat that’s going to help you
in GPPs a lot. So GPP stands for guaranteed prize pool. So the prize is
guarenteed. Also the amount of participants, the maximum participants in
that league is also set to; it doesn’t fluctuate. And there’s gonna be some GPPs
that are not going to be full. Let’s say a tournament is for 1,000 participants max.
Now if it’s close to kickoff time and there’s only seven hundred participants
and there’s no way it’s going to get full that fast — that’s a great league to
join because you have a lot higher chance to rank and get paid for that.
So that’s a great way to exploit GPPs. If you see it’s not gonna be full, join it. So look out
for GPPs that are going to be well below the maximum number of allowed participants. Me, I’m a
cash game type of guy. I like to play a lot of cash games every week but these
tournaments and events are often too hard to resist. Last year I came this close to
placing in the FanDuel Fantasy Football Championship event. They flew out a
hundred guys all expenses paid, I almost made it. I’m over it… Well not really… But I
almost made it to Vegas and I think the winner won $2 million dollars. These
guys have great promotions and events going on. You can click here to check it
out or follow the link down below in the description. Right now, we have a special
promotion with FanDuel and Fantasy Couch where they will match up to $200 for
your first time deposit, so please check that link out. Also make sure you
subscribe to the YouTube channel. I’ll be coming out with more DFS videos, my DFS
picks every week, so make sure you guys subscribe and I’ll see you guys on the
next video.

50 thoughts on “Daily Fantasy Football Strategy and Introduction (DFS)

  1. How's my team? 12 man standard, I had the 7th pick

    QB Drew Brees
    RB Andre Ellington
    RB Joseph Randle
    WR Antonio Brown
    WR Brandin Cooks
    TE Gronk
    K Mason Crosby
    DEF Eagles
    BN Joe Flacco
    BN Isaiah Crowell
    BN Bishop Sankey
    BN Martavis Bryant
    BN Dorial Green Beckham
    BN Christine Michael
    BN Cowboys D

    (I know my running backs are weak)

  2. Any suggestions for my team?
    It's a non-PPR 8 man league(it was a struggle to find people) with standard rules and points

    QB: Drew Bree's
    RB: Eddie Lacy
    RB: Latavius Murray
    WR: Oden Beckham Jr
    WR: T. Y. Hilton
    TE: Travis Kelce
    FLEX: Melvin Gordan
    D: Dolphins
    K: Cody Parkey
    Golden Tate
    Jarvis Landry
    T. J. Yeldon
    Doug Martin
    Marques Colston
    DeAnglo Williams
    Mathew Stafford

  3. What you think of my team? Had the 10th pick in a Standard 10 team league.

    QB: Matt Ryan
    WR: Jordan Matthews
    WR: Julian Edelman
    WR: Larry Fitzgerald
    RB: C.J.Anderson
    RB: Mark Ingram
    TE: Rob Gronkowski
    K: Steven Hauschka
    D: St. Louis
    Jonathan Stewart
    C.J. Spiller
    Anquan Boldin
    Darren McFadden
    Markus Wheaton
    Breshad Perriman

  4. First time playing FF and must say, your videos have been incredible and so informative. Thank you! I was in a standard 8 man league and was 6th pick. Any advice you could provide?

    QB: Ben Roethlisberger
    RB: Eddie Lacey
    RB: Carlos Hyde
    RB: Jonathan Stewart
    WR: Dez Bryant
    WR: Demaryius Thomas
    TE: Greg Olsen
    DP: Luke Kuechly
    D/ST: Buffalo Bills
    K: Mason Crosby

    Tony Romo (will start over Ben for Week 1 due to Steelers playing Pats)
    Ameer Abdullah
    Martavius Bryant (due to suspension)
    Matt Prater (not sure whether to start him or Crosby honestly)
    Dwayne Allen
    Adam Jones

  5. I've been watching your videos and asking for your advice for prob like 3 years now and its funny I rather listen to what you have to say then those big name "fantasy football experts" thanks for taking the time answering all of your fans questions and hope for big things for you and your team! #trustinthecouch

  6. What do u think of my team(7th pick standard 12 team league)
    RB:Cj Anderson
    RB:j Stewart
    WR:Emmanuel Sanders
    TE:G Olsen
    FLEX:Joseph Randle
    K:M Bryant
    Torrey smith
    Alfred blue
    eli manning
    Anything i should change in my lineup?

  7. How is my team looking?

    QB: Aaron Rodgers
    RB: LeSean McCoy
    RB: Chris Ivory
    WR: Julio Jones
    WR: DeAndre Hopkins
    TE: Martellus Bennett
    Flex: Sammy Watkins
    Flex: DeAngelo Williams
    K: Matt Bryant
    D: Seattle
    QB: Sam Bradford
    QB: Jameis Winston
    RB: LeGarrette Blount
    RB: Christine Micheal
    RB: Tevin Coleman
    WR: Nelson Agholor
    WR: Rueben Randle
    TE: Antonio Gates

  8. What you think of my team? Had the 5th pick in a Standard 10 team league.
    Ben Roethlisberger Pit – QBCam Newton Car – QB
    A.J. Green Cin – WR
    Vincent Jackson TB – WR
    Steve Smith Sr. Bal – WR
    Mike Wallace Min – WR
    Devin Funchess Car – WR
    LeSean McCoy Buf – RB
    Chris Ivory NYJ – RB
    Le'Veon Bell Pit – RB
    Danny Woodhead SD -RB
    Jimmy Graham Sea – TE
    Kyle Rudolph Min – TE
    Dan Bailey Dal – K
    Philadelphia Phi – DEF

  9. What do you think of my team? 12 team PPR, I had the 4th pick.

    QB: Sam Bradford
    RB: Marshawn Lynch
    RB: Lamar Miller
    WR: Randall Cobb
    WR: Jordan Matthews
    TE: Jordan Reed
    FLEX: Julian Edelman
    D/ST: Ravens
    K: Brandon McManus

    RB: Chris Ivory
    WR: DeSean Jackson
    WR: Eric Decker
    RB: Duke Johnson
    QB: Teddy Bridgewater
    RB: David Johnson
    WR: Cecil Shorts III

  10. Hey #askthebrain. I just finished my draft up (first time in fantasy 😀 ))and wanted to see what your thoughts were on how it went 🙂 Lemme know if i did well or should take anything into consideration!! (was an 8 man league non-ppr draft). This is my first time playing so if you have any information/videos to give me on how to play i would appreciate it! Great channel brother!

    QB: Andrew LUCK/ IND QB
    Rba: Adrian Peterson/ MIN RB
    Rb: Alfred Morris/ WSH RB
    WR: DeAndre Hopkins/ HOU WR
    WR: Julius Jones/ ATL WR
    TE: Vernon Davis/ SF TE
    Flex: Johnathan Stewart/ CAR RB
    D: Texans
    K: Justin Tucker / BAL
    Backup QB : Eli manning /NYG
    Backup: Julian Edelmen / NE WR
    Backup: Delaine Walker /TEN TE
    Backup: Larry FItzgerald /ARI WR
    Backup: Cameron Artis Payne /CAR RB
    Backup: Roy Helu /OAK RB
    Backup: Heath miller /PIT TE

  11. How's my team? 12 team ppr, I had the 6th pick.
    QB: Ryan Tannehill
    RB: CJ Anderson
    RB: Latavius Murray
    WR: Antonio Brown
    WR: Brandin Cooks
    TE: Jordan Cameron
    FLEX: Jordan Matthews
    D/ST: Dolphins
    K: Cody Parkey

    WR: Charles Johnson
    WR: Larry Fitzgerald
    RB: Ronnie Hillman
    RB: Roy Helu Jr.
    WR: Breshad Perriman
    RB: Darren Sproles
    RB: Arian Foster

  12. Question for you. For a flex spot who would you start in the flex?

    Keenan Allen
    Ameer Abdullah
    Allen Robinson
    T.J. Yeldon

    Right now I have Keenan Allen at home vs DET

  13. Hey man quick question which qb should I start for week one I got Eli Manning and the rookie qb from Tampa Bay tampa bay is playing the titans probably the worst defense in the league

  14. How do you feel about my team from a 12-man draft and any advice ? Thanks!
    Lamar miller
    Calvin Johnson
    Jarvis Landry
    Austin seferian-Jenkins
    Frank gore as Flex
    K-Blair Walsh
    Sam Bradford
    Todd gurly
    Bishop Stanley
    Victor Cruz
    Malcolm Floyd
    Devin Funchness

  15. #Askthebrain I subscribed to your channel and I love fantasy football you really doing ya thang bro . I'll def stay in tune with what you have going on . just want to know what you think about my team
    Second round pick: snake ESPN
    Qb: Andrew Luck
    Rb: L.Miller
    Rb: A. Ellington
    WR: Dez Bryant
    WR: Calvin Johnson
    TE: Jimmy Graham
    Flex: J. Landry
    Defense: Seahawks
    Kicker: Dan Bailey

    RB: J. Randle
    TE: Dwayne Allen
    RB: Rashad Jennings
    QB: P. Rivers
    RB: A. Blue
    RB: A. Abdullah
    WR: Charles Johnson

  16. #askthebrain, bro where do you go for the statistics you were talking about (snap count, %, goal line snaps, total targets etc.)

  17. Thanks for the advice. I'm curious though, what is the best resource utilize as far as the Vegas lines go? The one you posted in your video simple and straight forward. The ones I'm finding online look like they're written in another language.

  18. rate my team
    qb:andrew luck
    rb1:jeremy hill
    rb2:justin forsett
    wr1:demaryus thomas
    wr2:jeremy maclin
    te:Martellus bennett
    flex:doug martin
    k:adam vinateri
    arian foster
    frank gore
    jordan matthews
    jordan cameron
    ravens d
    isaiah crowell
    steve smith sr

    by the way, love the videos. Great advice, thanks

  19. @Aaron Albright (your account settings won't allow me to reply to your comment). You're very welcome! Thank you for your support and the comment. If this is an 8-man league, you're team is an A- , if it's a 10-man league it' s an A. Please make sure to subscribe to the Youtube channel for more awesome videos and fantasy tips, including my weekly waiver wire videos. You can sub here: https://www.youtube.com/subscription_center?add_user=fantasycouch

  20. Rate my team pls.

    12 team ppr-

    QB- Palmer
    RB- Forsett
    RB- Ivory
    WR- Megatron
    WR- Cooks
    TE- Bennett
    Flex- Boldin
    D/ST: Jets
    K- Gould

    bench :
    jared cook
    chris johnson
    b. coleman

  21. Very informative Video. I just signed up for Fan Duel coincidentally last night. Looking to do some research before i play my first few games. Im surious to know how long you'd been doing DF and how much money you've earned roughly since you started up to this point.

  22. great great insight.I took my notes. I kinda wondered where to start..had one question for ya .where do you find the best stat table or info to find percentage of snap count or best defenses verse a tight end?where do I go to find all of that?? Thanks man. I hope I make sense what I'm asking..:)

  23. thanku brutha. also one more quick question.. do u use fantasy point predictions often ??i've checked out a few websites ,and rankings are kind of similar but the actual point predictions are off..example:tyler eifert is 7 points on a certain site and 12 points on another.. do these predictions factor in the team defense against tight ends when coming up with these predictions. I know that's like 2 questions ,sorry man .

  24. thankyou man for sharing!! I watched your video and I can't believe I've been playing these big ass 400,000 person tourneys …. I've scored fairly well but what a long shot I was messing with. on to the less persons games..!!!!100 max most likely and 50/50.. I never knew that that was that way!!!

  25. Man first of all, I would like to say you are best, thanks for all the videos, they help me a lot. Now my question is how do I go by on choosing the right WRs and RBs for my lineups? Like in cash games I'm able to win most of the time but when it comes to tournaments I suck lol so how do you go by on picking the right WRs and RBs for your lineups? Do you mix them up from high value to lower value or in one lineup you pick the higher value WRs/RBs and the next lineup you pick the lower value WRs/RBs? Thanks in advance 🙂

  26. hey man.. I'm sorry but the news on the TV kind of makes me pissed is everything gonna be be ok . I'm really getting into DFS..jus thinking if u had any updates …:)

  27. Awesome vid. Thanks for the info. I saw the answered question below about a good site for the snap count, but when you say "Vegas Lines" and show the score predictions, is there a specific site you use? I've searched score predictions for the week and some vary. What's the more trusted info? I've subscribed and look forward to going through your videos.

    Great beard by the way 😉

    One other question for you. You say "players that you know (think) are gonna produce that are extremely cheap are good picks". I understand the concept of the WR1 and 2 being injured then obviously numbers 3 and 4 will see more action. I realize you have to stay below the salary cap, but why does it matter if they're "really" cheap? It's not like any salary money left over actually converts to fantasy points (which would be cool BTW). Do you make that comment strictly on the fact that it would allow you to pick a player in another position with a higher salary? Just starting out and trying to get as much info as possible since I've been burned a few times already trying to go with the highest salary players I can.

  28. Great video. definitely got a sub from me. I have a question the about the tournament leagues. does fan duel or draft kings combine similar contest to fill the spots up? EX: Two contest with first place takes $100. With 20 spots each but one has 12 filled and the other have 8 filled. would they combine them?

  29. Good video in describing all the stats no one has time to gather, analyze, and narrow down in the course of one week, with so many players across 32 teams. And if the many questions you say to ask ourselves each week have a different answer, then you're far from narrowing things down to one best choice. i.e. such as when a different RB leads the league in each one of the stats you say to look at. And where do you get stats on total snapcounts and % of snapcounts for a RB, and where do you get total targets and percentage of targets for WR's? Data on those things aren't provided by free websites. Are you paying someone to figure it out for you? What if the tallest WR doesn't lead in any other stats you check? What if the CB who will go up against them is just as tall, but a different shorter WR will have a shorter CB? How would you even know which CB will be covering a WR in most or all of a game in order to compare them? What if the RB with the highest snapcounts doesn't get high yardage? What if the TE that gets the most TD's isn't the one who gets the most receptions and target points? See the dilemma? I need advice on how to narrow it down, even if I had the time to gather up the answers to all those questions, which no one does. Do you use a computer program with an algorithm that factors in all this stuff? If so, how does all the data you mention get input to the program?

  30. Can you tell me what you think of this situation? This week, I took the advice of those who say to check out the Vegas lines to find out who the 8 highest scoring teams should be. People give that advice cause they figure the highest scoring teams should give you the best edge to have higher scoring players compared to other teams, right? So they're saying to focus on THOSE teams, right? So I decided to do that and forget all other teams, pulling my players from those 8. I spent hours entering that data into a spreadsheet, just to know who those 8 teams were. After computing each team's Vegas estimate using the O/U and the spread, they range from a high of 28.75 for OAK, down to 25.75 for PIT. I then checked my weekly stats that I spend hours on each week, recording on paper who was used the most for rushing, and receiving. It varies each week. This is my first season playing DF football, and the one thing I've learned is you never know who an offensive coordinator is going to use most to game the other team from week to week. i.e. One week, GB uses Cobb a lot, the next week they don't. I suppose that's where standard deviation comes in for those who have time to mess with it. I can see why someone my use Crabtree and or Cooper all the time cause they are two guys who get most of the work, instead of WR by committee, like a DAL or GB. I get that. Also, a players production can vary from week to week. McCoy did great one week, then got stymied the next. Elliott didn't do squat against DEN. Tyreek Hill and Kareen Hunt tore up NE Week 1, so naive little me grabbed them up with what I thought was a steal of a price for Week 2, then nothing. MIN had WR Diggs going off the charts, so I take him the next week, and nothing. Now I know why player prices don't fluctuate wildly from week to week as much as player performance does. What's past is past, and not an indication of the next week. But I wasn't using the Vegas lines method those 2 weeks to narrow down the TEAMS FIRST. So now I've done that. I created a lineup with players just from those teams. I decided to enter a double-up contest that included all 16 games. I didn't have a player from the Thursday night teams, but decided to play anyway, figuring that having players from that game, (which I didn't cause they weren't in my Top 8 teams), didn't necessarily help other players cause those weren't the best teams, and they could just as easily hurt their point total for the week as to help it, and I'd make up any points they got ahead of me in later games. Then Gurley gets a whopping 40.9 right off the bat, putting the lineups who had him for Thursday in the 2nd group of contest leaders, by far. Those who also chose Carlos Hyde are in the top heap above those who had only Gurley. Hyde got 24.4. Then all of us lizards have to play catch up the rest of the weekend, a whopping 60.3 points behind after just one game!. So I'm already sunk. In my previous 2 Weeks, I have yet to have even one player get 30 pts, much less 40 pts. Another issue is that Cobb was on the injury report, so I took him out for now, and went with DeAndre Hopkins, which put me $100 over salary cap. I didn't see a good alternative to a PHI defense, so I had to sacrifice Ty Montgomery to move down in salary and took Tarik Cohen. I'll change them all back before kickoff if Cobb looks healthy, or play both lineups since I'm only doing $1 contests right now to see how I can do, which is smart cause I'm way underwater. What do you think of all this? My thinking is that a person has to narrow things down from the start, and the Vegas lines method sounds as good as any. That makes it manageable. Problem is, that means I ruled out the Thur night game of LAR and SF completely. I didn't even look at my stat sheet for them, or I would have been reminded that Gurley has had some good stats this year, and in Weeks 1 and 2 I considered or used him, but can't do so using the Vegas team elimination method cause his team wasn't projected high scoring, which turned out to be WAY off. No one knew he would have such a good game. We never know. It's too volatile. People paying up through the wazoo for guys like LeVeon Bell and Julio Jones got screwed, (in Week 1, especially.) Would you say I've done absolutely nothing wrong, and being behind by so many points after Thurs is just part of the game, and it's probably going to be a bad week, or would you say the Vegas method of narrowing down teams is a good start, but that I should have done something else to make sure I considered Gurley? It seems to me, the same teams are scoring the highest points throughout the season. So teams like ATL, GB, NE, etc will always hold your core players if that's your strategy. It seems that using players from teams that aren't even projected by Vegas to score 25 points is shooting yourself in the foot. But then, that strategy means you miss the high point getters from the other teams. The O/U for Thursdays game was obliterated, with 70 pts total from both teams. Who knew? No one. Do I just write this off, or could I have done something more? Luckily, I only risked $1, just to enter and see how I can do. When I think of the better players who put up thousands or dollars in entry fees per week, that's just too much money to lose if they had used the same strategy I did. I have good players, but I'm already at a huge disadvantage because of the way Gurley and Hyde played Thursday night. Based on your experience, would you be kicking yourself right now, or would you say you did exactly what you were suppose to, but luck just wasn't on your side this week? I have to find a strategy that's going to produce more wins than loses before I even think about moving up in stakes, entry fee, and contest difficulty, and I'm not even close to finding it yet. I can't even beat the beginners on Draft Kings, and we know they don't all have computer program algorithms and fancy data downloaded from a paid site into a spreadsheet. Also, do you think there's a big leap in ability between the average NFL DFS player with under 50 contests (no badge) and the ones who have more? From looking at the results of contests I've entered, the 'beginners' are doing pretty damn good when so many players have such high scores. Or maybe it's just that 50% of the people in a double-up are going to be luckier each week, and I just haven't had their luck. Thanks for any feedback. I know I've thrown a lot of crap at you, but if you don't have time to answer every question, I mainly want to know if I should continue using just players from the highest Vegas predictions and don't sweat the other teams and players, or if I should ALWAYS keep looking for value anywhere I can get it, with Vegas just being ONE of the many things I have to spend my time on. If you say the latter, well, there's just not enough time in the week for all of this.

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