Betfair trading – How odds move in a soccer / football match

Betfair trading – How odds move in a soccer / football match
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how do odd Smoove in a football market
soccer depending upon which you prefer to call it should I say English football
European football its interrupt here I want to call it
how wish they would make their mind up where you can actually look here at is
the price predictor in soccer mystic and we’re looking at Stoke V Middlesbrough
signal strength is reasonable and basically what you can see here is that
for this particular match if we move the crosshairs down here there’s about a 40%
chance of home win in other words there’s about a 40% chance of Stoke
winning this match. Now it obviously makes sense that if Stoke don’t score
the chance of them winning the match falls away and you can see that
represented by the red line if Middlesbrough don’t score then you can
see in fact that their chance of winning the match goes down further and further
so you know the chance of Stoke winning Falls from 40 to 0% full-time we’ve set
full time here at 93 minutes you can see here that the chance for the draw
increases so you know all of this is fairly obvious you know this makes
perfect sense if nobody scores the chance of the draw it’s going to
increase if I am flip this to the odds chart and I’ll limit this to alts of 100
so that we keep it within the realms of actually just limited to 50 you can see
here the odds on Stoke winning the match I started about 2.4 2.5 there are routes
and get longer they drift as much goes on you can see the price on the draw
comes in so you can see necessarily that’s pretty intuitive there’s no
rocket science there nothing complicated at all the funny thing is though that
you speak to a lot of people and they get a lot of the other facts about a
soccer match completely incorrect but one of the areas that I’ve seen people
get incorrect the most is the correct score market one of the things that you
can do in soccer mystic is you can actually model each of these markets so
you know if we look at match odds we can wire to the clock forward and you can
see here that it will tell us what’s going on as the match gets underway one
thing to bear in mind is that as with all statistics most
testicle analysis relies upon the underlying detail remaining the same so
for example if you’re in a tennis match you would expect odds to remain
consistent throughout in other words the chance of somebody winning a point all
statistical models are based upon the fact that that remains consistent
throughout the match and the same in football you know the chance of somebody
winning the match is based upon the chance of them scoring goal which
statistical models will say is consistent during much now in reality
that’s never the case so you can never get this hundred percent right using any
form of modeling all you can do is get a really good idea of roughly what’s going
to happen in a way now I’ve inserted that caveat let’s let’s go on you can
see here that um we can move the forecast time around and learn what
happens to the price of odds and as you can see if there’s no goals we haven’t
put in Gold’s in over here and as the match progresses and the chance patrol
comes in and so on just the way that we’ve done it if I reset this and we go
back to the correct score let’s have a look at what happens in the correct
score market so you can see here there’s general agreement on the prices within
this particular match in terms of what the price should be and what they
actually are in the market according to soccer mystic and according to the
market that were looking at so nil nil let’s have a quick look at nil nil as
the match progresses if I wind the clock forward you can see here that the chance
of nil nil increases and therefore the odds decrease so you can see here the
chance of nil nil increases as the match goes on without in goals that is fairly
obvious and intuitive what’s happens further down the chance of three now
let’s have a look of three nil is who happens we’re starting the match at
probability of 3.25% and predicted odds of thirty point eight so if I wind that
fort you can see the chance if 3-nil just declines away as the match
progresses so that’s fairly obvious as well what about to all let’s have a look
at to all here you can see starts at the odds of about 20 to 23 or thereabouts
and if I wind that forward let’s see what happens to the chance of that that
fades away as the match goes on and this is how most people bet up a correct
score market they basically say off you know as the chance of that as the match
goes on the chance something happening is much less but let’s have a look at
one nil you can see here the chance of one nil the score being one nil is
twelve point eight percent so if we wind it forward as the match progresses can
you see what’s happening here the chance of one nil actually increases for a very
long period of time so can you see here it’s going 18% 19% 20% and then it
stalls so you can see here as the match progresses get to about 20% which is the
maximum that it will trade at if there are no goals and then it starts to come
back in and if we look up at the forecast time where we’ve dragged the
clock to that’s around 54 minutes so rather counter intuitively if you’re
actually trading the correct score market you need to be really careful
because actually odds can and will move in ways that account intuitive a lot of
people think that one nil the odds just get larger as the match progresses but
in fact they get shorter for period sorry you understand one coming the
chance of one nil gets higher as the match progresses and then the odds at
around a certain point in the match start to lengthen again see you’ve got
to be careful of this because a lot of people make this mistake all the time
also buddy but be careful of is applying one strategy to all four matches every
single football match is different I have tens of thousands of football
matches that I’ve collected over 20 years or so and in play data and the
thing about each individual matches they are different so you can’t have a one
fits all strategy and that’s why we designed the soccer mystic price
predictor because that allows you to look at a match understand how the odds
are going to move and then base your position in the market around how the
odds are very likely to move it’s a risk management tool and it
allows you to understand when you should get in once you get out and exactly how
you expect the markets happen when the match is in play in the matches bumbling
along you’ll get a much better idea of you know what influences are going on
within the match but by using this before the match is off we’ll tell you
how the match should react and what you should expect to see and like I said
every single match is different and that’s why we created the price paddocks
because there’s no one fits all strategy have to adapt it match by match but
there’s a quick summary of something that’s slightly counterintuitive to a
lot of people okay that was the theory what about what actually happens and you
can see here we’ve got home team away team man of Simon lapsed what I’ve done
is captured data from the actual match itself whether matches in play total
amount matched and what the one-nil although one nil to back price was as
the metros underway a little bit of turbulence when the match gets underway
but you can see here these are the odds ticking away as we go through the match
as time passes by see we’re catching them at about thirty second intervals or
thereabouts here by the look of it and if you wanted to work out the implied
probability just do one divided by the odds and there you get you see it be
12.1 percent or thereabouts to our point two now rather than just walk you
through this particular column and show you the individual price sector which
every 30 seconds I prepared a graph and this much better illustrates what
actually happened during the match so you can see here when the match started
it started at a probability of around 12% and then as the match progressed you
can see it’s a little bit bumpy because we’re sampling every 30 seconds instead
of every second or so on and though the odds spike when things happen but you
can see here that as the match progressed basically the chance of the
match ending 1 nil the percentage chance of increased in other words the odds
were coming in all of the time the percentage chance continue to increase
until it plateaued here and then as the match continued the
price started to lengthen again so you can see here this is a firm illustration
of the practice of the price predictor versus the reality of actually what
happened in the match obviously slight variances do occur as the match gets
underway depending upon the number of shots that have been taken how the match
is panning out and vs. slight variances but you can see here the core underlying
aspect of the what actually happens to the old stirring the match remains
intact even there’s a the odd variance every now and again but there you go
you can see that practice does translate into reality

7 thoughts on “Betfair trading – How odds move in a soccer / football match

  1. Hmm nice video, but you can with mathematical or statistical modelling, model a match assuming that points in tennis or minutes in soccer are dependant. eg, that the change of scoring a goal or winning a point changes over time. It just requires professional modelling.

  2. At last! Some one who knows what they are talking about. I have just been watching a vid by bluecyprus who clearly has no clue and will never make any money.

  3. Im just a mug punter, but in my mind the 1-0 result shortening in price over time makes sense. Wouldn't the higher scores become less likely over time thereby making the 0-0, 1-0 type results more obvious ? Although 1-0 might become less likely as against 0-0, would it not be more likely as against the whole market?

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