how do odd Smoove in a football market

soccer depending upon which you prefer to call it should I say English football

European football its interrupt here I want to call it

how wish they would make their mind up where you can actually look here at is

the price predictor in soccer mystic and we’re looking at Stoke V Middlesbrough

signal strength is reasonable and basically what you can see here is that

for this particular match if we move the crosshairs down here there’s about a 40%

chance of home win in other words there’s about a 40% chance of Stoke

winning this match. Now it obviously makes sense that if Stoke don’t score

the chance of them winning the match falls away and you can see that

represented by the red line if Middlesbrough don’t score then you can

see in fact that their chance of winning the match goes down further and further

so you know the chance of Stoke winning Falls from 40 to 0% full-time we’ve set

full time here at 93 minutes you can see here that the chance for the draw

increases so you know all of this is fairly obvious you know this makes

perfect sense if nobody scores the chance of the draw it’s going to

increase if I am flip this to the odds chart and I’ll limit this to alts of 100

so that we keep it within the realms of actually just limited to 50 you can see

here the odds on Stoke winning the match I started about 2.4 2.5 there are routes

and get longer they drift as much goes on you can see the price on the draw

comes in so you can see necessarily that’s pretty intuitive there’s no

rocket science there nothing complicated at all the funny thing is though that

you speak to a lot of people and they get a lot of the other facts about a

soccer match completely incorrect but one of the areas that I’ve seen people

get incorrect the most is the correct score market one of the things that you

can do in soccer mystic is you can actually model each of these markets so

you know if we look at match odds we can wire to the clock forward and you can

see here that it will tell us what’s going on as the match gets underway one

thing to bear in mind is that as with all statistics most

testicle analysis relies upon the underlying detail remaining the same so

for example if you’re in a tennis match you would expect odds to remain

consistent throughout in other words the chance of somebody winning a point all

statistical models are based upon the fact that that remains consistent

throughout the match and the same in football you know the chance of somebody

winning the match is based upon the chance of them scoring goal which

statistical models will say is consistent during much now in reality

that’s never the case so you can never get this hundred percent right using any

form of modeling all you can do is get a really good idea of roughly what’s going

to happen in a way now I’ve inserted that caveat let’s let’s go on you can

see here that um we can move the forecast time around and learn what

happens to the price of odds and as you can see if there’s no goals we haven’t

put in Gold’s in over here and as the match progresses and the chance patrol

comes in and so on just the way that we’ve done it if I reset this and we go

back to the correct score let’s have a look at what happens in the correct

score market so you can see here there’s general agreement on the prices within

this particular match in terms of what the price should be and what they

actually are in the market according to soccer mystic and according to the

market that were looking at so nil nil let’s have a quick look at nil nil as

the match progresses if I wind the clock forward you can see here that the chance

of nil nil increases and therefore the odds decrease so you can see here the

chance of nil nil increases as the match goes on without in goals that is fairly

obvious and intuitive what’s happens further down the chance of three now

let’s have a look of three nil is who happens we’re starting the match at

probability of 3.25% and predicted odds of thirty point eight so if I wind that

fort you can see the chance if 3-nil just declines away as the match

progresses so that’s fairly obvious as well what about to all let’s have a look

at to all here you can see starts at the odds of about 20 to 23 or thereabouts

and if I wind that forward let’s see what happens to the chance of that that

fades away as the match goes on and this is how most people bet up a correct

score market they basically say off you know as the chance of that as the match

goes on the chance something happening is much less but let’s have a look at

one nil you can see here the chance of one nil the score being one nil is

twelve point eight percent so if we wind it forward as the match progresses can

you see what’s happening here the chance of one nil actually increases for a very

long period of time so can you see here it’s going 18% 19% 20% and then it

stalls so you can see here as the match progresses get to about 20% which is the

maximum that it will trade at if there are no goals and then it starts to come

back in and if we look up at the forecast time where we’ve dragged the

clock to that’s around 54 minutes so rather counter intuitively if you’re

actually trading the correct score market you need to be really careful

because actually odds can and will move in ways that account intuitive a lot of

people think that one nil the odds just get larger as the match progresses but

in fact they get shorter for period sorry you understand one coming the

chance of one nil gets higher as the match progresses and then the odds at

around a certain point in the match start to lengthen again see you’ve got

to be careful of this because a lot of people make this mistake all the time

also buddy but be careful of is applying one strategy to all four matches every

single football match is different I have tens of thousands of football

matches that I’ve collected over 20 years or so and in play data and the

thing about each individual matches they are different so you can’t have a one

fits all strategy and that’s why we designed the soccer mystic price

predictor because that allows you to look at a match understand how the odds

are going to move and then base your position in the market around how the

odds are very likely to move it’s a risk management tool and it

allows you to understand when you should get in once you get out and exactly how

you expect the markets happen when the match is in play in the matches bumbling

along you’ll get a much better idea of you know what influences are going on

within the match but by using this before the match is off we’ll tell you

how the match should react and what you should expect to see and like I said

every single match is different and that’s why we created the price paddocks

because there’s no one fits all strategy have to adapt it match by match but

there’s a quick summary of something that’s slightly counterintuitive to a

lot of people okay that was the theory what about what actually happens and you

can see here we’ve got home team away team man of Simon lapsed what I’ve done

is captured data from the actual match itself whether matches in play total

amount matched and what the one-nil although one nil to back price was as

the metros underway a little bit of turbulence when the match gets underway

but you can see here these are the odds ticking away as we go through the match

as time passes by see we’re catching them at about thirty second intervals or

thereabouts here by the look of it and if you wanted to work out the implied

probability just do one divided by the odds and there you get you see it be

12.1 percent or thereabouts to our point two now rather than just walk you

through this particular column and show you the individual price sector which

every 30 seconds I prepared a graph and this much better illustrates what

actually happened during the match so you can see here when the match started

it started at a probability of around 12% and then as the match progressed you

can see it’s a little bit bumpy because we’re sampling every 30 seconds instead

of every second or so on and though the odds spike when things happen but you

can see here that as the match progressed basically the chance of the

match ending 1 nil the percentage chance of increased in other words the odds

were coming in all of the time the percentage chance continue to increase

until it plateaued here and then as the match continued the

price started to lengthen again so you can see here this is a firm illustration

of the practice of the price predictor versus the reality of actually what

happened in the match obviously slight variances do occur as the match gets

underway depending upon the number of shots that have been taken how the match

is panning out and vs. slight variances but you can see here the core underlying

aspect of the what actually happens to the old stirring the match remains

intact even there’s a the odd variance every now and again but there you go

you can see that practice does translate into reality

Hmm nice video, but you can with mathematical or statistical modelling, model a match assuming that points in tennis or minutes in soccer are dependant. eg, that the change of scoring a goal or winning a point changes over time. It just requires professional modelling.

We realise that, but we have to make people risk aware when participating in any market.

Well done. You are going to hear from me 5*

At last! Some one who knows what they are talking about. I have just been watching a vid by bluecyprus who clearly has no clue and will never make any money.

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Im just a mug punter, but in my mind the 1-0 result shortening in price over time makes sense. Wouldn't the higher scores become less likely over time thereby making the 0-0, 1-0 type results more obvious ? Although 1-0 might become less likely as against 0-0, would it not be more likely as against the whole market?