so I have a question for you if a team

starts a match at odds of four what chance do they have of scoring the first

goal because they’re priced at for the other team will be heavily odds on what

chance does the team priced at odds of four have of scoring the first goal is a

25% is it 50% is it 75% what chance do they have of scoring that first goal

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Academy where we have more detailed videos so this was Italy I meant to do a

little while ago and I thought it was quite interesting because it shows a

couple of things if you wonder where you are in the market or where your edges

very often it makes sense to consult the wisdom of the crowds so I asked a

question on Twitter a little while ago which was exactly the same I said if a

home team in a football stroke soccer match is priced at 4 how often will they

score the first goal and I put up a few options on the poll there was 10% at the

time 20% of the time 30% of the time or 40% of the time so have another little

think here which would you go for 10 20 30 or 40% chance of scoring the first

goal if they are at decimal odds of four now a decimal odds of for a team has a

25% chance of winning so I’m giving you a bit of a steer there if the team is

priced at four there’s a 25% chance of winning do they have a 10 a 20 or 30 or

a 40% chance of scoring that first goal so if we consult the crowd as we did on

Twitter the answers that came back were have a have a think about your won and

not people said that the team would score first 10% of the time 19% of

people said to 10% of the time 29% of people said 20% of the time and 36% of

people said 30% of the time and 16% said 40% of the time so basically the average

guess came out or the highest number of people voted

or thirty percent of the time so team that has a 25 percent chance of winning

they reckoned would score the first goal 30 percent of the time now one of the

things that I did to consult the wisdom of the crowd was not to take that answer

completely as read I just thought well let’s add up all of those things and if

we do 19 percent multiplied by 10 percent twenty nine percent multiplied

by 20 and so on that would give us a nice average of where we felt the the

chance of that first goal scoring would be but the remarkable thing is people

looked at the odds of four and the average guest came out at twenty five

percent which is basically the same chance of the team winning so if you

look at the wisdom of the crowd the crowd was basically saying that the

chance of the team scoring first would be the same as their decimal odds now

the reason for highlighting this is especially when you’re looking at

matches that a missed matched where you’ve got one heavily odds-on team or a

premiership team paying another team and I’ve said this many many times before

and you see me saying on social media all of the time the out sky the outsider

scores more often than you would think and if we look at this particular survey

the reason that I did the survey was to highlight this particular point and the

fact that most people get it completely wrong so hopefully you know in the time

that we’ve been doing this video you’ve been thinking through what your answer

would be because I’m deliberately holding it back at this particular

moment and when we look at a team at odds of four then obviously the the

their opponents will be heavily odds-on and there will be a chance of a draw but

necessarily you would expect them to be in a position whether unexpected or it’s

unlikely that they would win the match and also with the other team being heavy

odds on you would think that they would probably score first and that would be

how they lose the match but football doesn’t work like that football can be a

little bit random at times and the way the goals are scored in the distribution

of girls can be a little bit random as well but thinking through the problem

here as well the first thing to solve with this particular issue is I’ve said

here how often will they score first now of course it’s quite likely that they

may not score nobody scores first it could be nil nil

now if you look at the very very long term stats there’s about an 8% chance of

a match ending nil nil which would be odds of 12.5 so the first thing to do is

you have to discount that out of the equation and that necessarily distorts

the outcome a little bit as well but also if the other team that we’re

talking about here is playing at home and there are odds of four you would

probably want to insert a little bit home bias in there as well so you’d have

to discount the fact that the match could end nil nil and then put a little

bit of a home bias into your calculation so now I’ve given you all of that

information as well have another thing is the chance of the team scoring the

first goal ten percent twenty thirty or forty percent when they are odds of four

what’s your guess drum roll please well the answer is if a team is priced

at decimal odds of four in other words they have a 25 percent chance of winning

then the chance of them scoring the first goal is thirty seven percent or

just over thirty seven percent and that tends to surprise people a lot because

that’s quite a gap you’re talking about a twelve percent better chance of

winning the match and scoring the further sorry a top cent better chance

of scoring the first goal than winning the match so the chance wooden matches

twenty-five percent but the chances going first is thirty seven percent but

the interesting thing about this is when you actually plot this across a whole

range of different starting prices you tends to find that the the it’s

disproportionate so if the team is priced heavy odds on then the chance of

scoring first is more or less their chance of winning the match but as we go

down that curve when we head off into the distance to higher odds such as odds

of three or four or bigger then you tend to find that there’s a big differential

between the chance of them scoring first and going on to win the match in other

words the likelihood of them scoring first doesn’t accurately reflect what’s

their starting prices there’s quite a big gap there and that naturally draws

me being a bit of a contrarian into matches like that where in fact the

trading opportunity is much much higher in those matches necessarily than the

outright betting opportunity because the chance of the

team that’s odds against scoring first is actually much higher than you would

typically think if you look at where it’s roughly evenly balanced between the

home and the way team scoring first within a match you’re looking more or

less at odds of that sort of 284 around that sort of level just below odds of

three so when we look at the market from that particular perspective that’s where

it can be slightly distorting as we’ve seen with the crowds that seems to be

relatively distorting as well and when we look at the outcome of a match you

have to sort of separate their potential outcome of the match in the path that

will follow to get to the outcome of the match from where the starting notes are

and also who scores that first goal and how the match is likely to unfold from

there as the say football is a game of two halves

so maybe the team that solves against scores in the first half but tactics and

all of the other things change at halftime or at some point in the match

and that’s one of the dynamics that that changes the outcome of the match after

that first goal but there you go the chance of the home team scoring if they

are at odds of four is 37% which is much higher than you would expect from a team

at that particular price within the market you

Surely the odds on the 'next goal' or 'first team to score' market reflects this though?

Hi Peter – in previous videos when talking about goals and predicting the draw – you say about pricing up the draw. How do you price up a match? could you do a video on this at some point 🙂

I do like those sort of a games where the underdog has quite big chances of scoring first and the price is quite high, I do back them in the market " Team to win and both teams to score " and if the price was 3/1 , the price on that morket would be slightly more and I would lay them on exchange

I would have said about 20%

Why do you disable the like to dislike bar?

one recent one that jumps to mind is Newport scoring in the 38min v Tottenham before Kane as usual saves the day in the last 10 min

This doesn't surprise me at all, given the outside teams I've layed you see it all the time